Australia Votes 2010 => Julia Gillard

    • Australia Votes 2010 => Julia Gillard

      Who will you vote for in 2010? 7
      1.  
        Australian Labor Party (3) 43%
      2.  
        Liberal-National Coalition (2) 29%
      3.  
        Greens (1) 14%
      4.  
        Independents (0) 0%
      5.  
        Other (Socialist Alliance, One Nation etc.) (1) 14%
      The election I think is planned for September 2010, but the actual date hasn't been announced.

      To me, the big election issues seem to be this health reform and Rudd's lax immigration policies.

      To be honest, I think Abbott has a chance. Rudd has NOT performed to what people expected him to do, and he has made several major mistakes in his first 3 years of government.

      And with some of the state Labor govts on the backburner, people I think don't trust the Labor party as much as they used to. They are deeply unpopular in Queensland and NSW which isn't good as if those two states alone swing against Rudd, he could lose.

      If Rudd wins, I think he will win again in 2013 and possibly 2016, by which time Gillard will probably be PM and win in 2019 on the women novelty vote alone. We could be stuck with Labor until 2022 >.>

      Opinions?

      An election calculator can be found here: Antony Green's House of Reps Calculator - 2010 Federal Election - ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

    • Re: Australia Votes 2010 => Rudd vs Abbott

      rmg126 wrote:

      I thought you hated him and want him out? :o


      I do, mainly because of the internet censorship AND I can't stand the way it speaks... its embarrassing :(

      Esmo wrote:

      What's the nature of your health reform debate?

      If I was voting, then the Liberal-Nationals don't appeal to me. I'd probably vote Labor.


      I believe (in VERY simple terms) that Rudd wants to seize control of the health systems from the states as he promised that he would do, and take away 30% of their GST revenue that they receive from the feds (everything sold and bought is taxed by 10%- this is GST). Rudd wants to instead have hospitals being controlled by regional boards, and to scrap the endless blame games and bureaucratic duplication that happens, as health is covered by both state and federal govts.

      Abbott said he had a health plan, I don't think he has released it yet (I could be wrong) but he said it would be different to Rudd's.

      Jarred wrote:

      do either offer free cake?


      :( nope, not even free money

      dannym2326 wrote:

      How does the australian parliament elections work?


      Ours is quite different to that of the US, ours is based on the Westminster system.

      Basically the Federal Govt is made up of 2 levels, the House of Representatives and the Senate.
      This provides a more indepth description: Politics of Australia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

      In the HOR, the country is divided into 150 "electorates" (or "seats"), and each electorate elects a person to represent them in parliament. These representatives can be members of a political party, or can simply be independents. For a majority government, a political party needs at least 50% of the seats in order to gain control- that is 76 seats.
      In a way, there is no "RUDD VS ABBOTT" polling sheet, you simply vote for the Labor or Liberal (in urban areas) or National (in rural areas) candidate.
      The Liberal and National party have made themselves into a coalition and have done so for many decades.

      In the party, the party caucus then elects a member to lead this party. The party/coalition with control elects the PM, and this is Kevin Rudd (who happens to be my local federal member too :p) and he took over Labor in 2006. The leader of the 2nd largest party, the "Opposition" elects the "leader of the Opposition", and this is Tony Abbott who is the leader of the Liberals.

      If neither party gains 76 seats, it's a "hung parliament" and the balance of power is held by another party, or perhaps some independents. It happens.

      :)

      Normally you'll find most elections are fought over "marginal seats", aka those which require a small swing for the opposition to gain. The government of the day is usually decided by those middle swing voters in the swing seats who go to the ballot box and vote then and there who they want to vote for.

      One thing I hate about this system is that a political party can actually lose the popular vote yet still comfortably win government- this especially happened recently in South Australia, the liberals had an epic swing towards them but failed to pick up the key marginal seats that Labor successfully defended. Although there was a 7% swing against Labor, they only lost 2 seats.

      The post was edited 1 time, last by Member20832 ().

    • Re: Australia Votes 2010 => Rudd vs Abbott

      Lachlan wrote:

      Rudd wants to seize control of the health systems from the states as he promised that he would do, and take away 30% of their GST revenue that they receive from the feds (everything sold and bought is taxed by 10%- this is GST). Rudd wants to instead have hospitals being controlled by regional boards, and to scrap the endless blame games and bureaucratic duplication that happens, as health is covered by both state and federal govts.

      So essentially cut off centralised links so that states have more control over their healthcare?

      Lachlan wrote:

      Ours is quite different to that of the US, ours is based on the Westminster system...bla bla bla

      He's from the UK, you coulda stopped there :p.
      [CENTER]


      [RIGHT]Ta-ta
      [/RIGHT]
      [/CENTER]

    • Re: Australia Votes 2010 => Rudd vs Abbott

      Esmo wrote:


      If I was voting, then the Liberal-Nationals don't appeal to me. I'd probably vote Labor.


      I would probably have done the same IF they hadn't fucked up the home insulation programme, the "education revolution" which failed epicly, their lax border patrol policies and their annoying internet censorship plight :)

      It seems that the only things that the Liberal-Nationals can come up with is more negative hate :( but I am still willing to vote Labor in other areas- for example in the next Brisbane elections, our local member is Labor but she's been pretty good for the community :) and in QLD I would actually prefer to keep Anna as premier but they've completely stuffed up our health system :( and sent us broke :( on the contrary, I imagine the first thing the LNP would do if they gained power would be to cancel a nice load of Anna's policies and projects, sack a whole heap of people and cut costs left right and centre. THEN they'd do what Anna is doing and sell off the assets, they're no better.

      The post was edited 2 times, last by Member20832 ().

    • Re: Australia Votes 2010 => Rudd vs Abbott

      Jarred wrote:

      do either offer free cake?


      This is all i care about with the government..
      [CENTER][SIGPIC][/SIGPIC] [/CENTER]
      [CENTER] Cassie: Do you remember when you rode with me in the ambulance after I tried to kill myself?
      Jal      : Of course.
      Cassie      : That's what love feels like.      [SIZE=4][SIZE=3]
      ♥      [/SIZE]       [/SIZE]      [SIZE=4]I Love You Dylan[/SIZE][SIZE=4] [SIZE=3]♥[/SIZE][/SIZE][SIZE=1]
      [/SIZE]      [/CENTER]

    • Re: Australia Votes 2010 => Rudd vs Abbott

      Well haven't things changed a lot over the last month?

      Rudd proposed a new 40% super profits tax on the richest mining companies without consulting anyone and has created a massive shitstorm. Support for Labor has gone down the drain, and apparently some members of the ALP caucus want to dump him as leader as early as next week :o

      KEY Labor MPs are prepared to move against Kevin Rudd's leadership to make way for Julia Gillard as early as next week.

      A challenge depends on Labor's polling not dramatically improving and the dispute with miners over the super-profits tax not being resolved soon.

      Labor MPs surveyed by The Weekend Australian believe the government's support has "tanked" in western Sydney, Western Australia and Queensland and that Labor should change leaders to restore confidence or risk losing the election.

      At least 10 MPs in marginal seats contradicted the Prime Minister's suggestion that the negotiations with miners over the tax could last for weeks or months.

      Federal Labor is bracing for further pain this weekend, with an expected loss in the by-election for the Labor-held state seat of Penrith in western Sydney and a swing against the state government of 10-20 per cent.

      Penrith sits in the federal seat of Lindsay and some MPs fear its loss could foreshadow a swath of potential losses in federal Labor-held seats in western and southwestern Sydney.

      While the state Labor government is in deep trouble itself and has predicted swings against it in Penrith, campaigners have discovered concerns about federal Labor, asylum-seekers and Mr Rudd personally.

      On Monday, the Prime Minister dismissed leadership speculation, saying he faced no threat from the Labor caucus and cabinet. But after the Prime Minister on Thursday predicted another "whacking in the polls" ahead of this weekend's Newspoll survey -- scheduled to be published in The Australian on Tuesday -- senior government MPs said yesterday there was "deep alarm and concern" within Labor ranks about the damaging dispute with the mining companies and the issue of asylum-seeker arrivals.

      The latest Newspoll, conducted at the end of last month, has Labor leading the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis 51 per cent to 49 per cent, with primary vote support of just 35 per cent.

      Parliament resumes for the final sitting week on Monday before the long winter break. It could be the last sitting week before the election.

      Although some MPs say there will be action at Tuesday's caucus meeting if the polls get worse, others argue that it would be "suicide" to change leaders so close to an election.

      Most Labor marginal seat holders in resources states contacted yesterday contradicted Mr Rudd's claims that the negotiations over the proposed mining tax could take months because it was better to "get it right" than settle in a hurry.

      The MPs -- among at least 20 contacted by The Weekend Australian -- claimed they were "bleeding" in their electorates because they could not defend a tax that was unresolved and were unable to deal with constituent concerns about asylum-seekers while the tax dominated the debate.

      A minority of MPs defended the government's handling, arguing that Mr Rudd could take his time and resolve the tax.

      Mr Rudd's attempts to play down the importance of poor polling and buy more time for tax negotiations by suggesting the election didn't have to be held until March or April next year further confused Labor MPs.

      Tony Abbott immediately accused Mr Rudd of "running scared" from an election, which is expected between August and October, by trying to put it off until next year, while Health Minister Nicola Roxon said she wanted the election to be held "soon".

      Mr Rudd's office tried to defuse the confusion yesterday by saying the election would be held this year.

      Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard said yesterday she had not been approached to run for the leadership and that Mr Rudd had made it clear he intended to lead Labor to the election and serve a full term. But she ducked questions about putting Labor ahead of herself, saying only "the nation comes first".

      "I always expected this was going to be a tough year," she told the Nine Network's Today program. "It was going to be a tough contest going into the election and it's proving to be."

      Labor MPs in marginal seats told The Weekend Australian yesterday they were alarmed that the mining tax negotiations were "dragging on" and claimed they were "bleeding" on the asylum-seeker issue with the perception that boat arrivals were getting out of control.

      An irate Labor MP from Queensland said there was no "clean air" and all the oxygen had been sucked out of all of the issues Labor had a lead on. "I can't talk about health, I can't talk about education, I can't talk about anything we are actually doing while these negotiations drag on," he said. "I don't know if the Prime Minister has got the message yet, but the tide is turning against us and while this goes on and on, we just can't turn it around."

      Graham Perrett, MP for the Queensland seat of Moreton who is also the convener of the Labor Friends of Resources and Energy, said he would prefer to be talking about health and education rather than the super-profits tax.

      "I'm happy to go to the election on the RSPT if that's what Tony Abbott wants," he said. "But that said, I think we need to put a spotlight on the benefits of the RSPT.

      "I must admit the key Labor things I like talking about are health and education and the economy."

      Another MP said voters still had an open mind on the tax but every day more were "switching off" because there was no resolution to the dispute. "We could win it if we had something to go on," he said. "But there are no facts at the moment because it hasn't been settled. Voters in my electorate are starting to turn against it because of how long the negotiations are taking."

      Many MPs independently raised the issue of asylum-seekers, complaining that the government had mishandled the issue.

      One furious MP said "there is a sense of crisis out there".

      Poll the key as mutineers circle Kevin Rudd | The Australian

    • Re: Australia Votes 2010 => Rudd vs Abbott

      It's not just happening federally, but also in the states. Labor are in power in 8 out of the 9 Governments in Australia, but that's certainly set to change.

      For example
      -> Federally, opinion polls show Labor on 47% and Coalition (Liberals) on 53%, 2PP
      -> They lost in WA a few years ago
      -> They almost lost in Tasmania earlier this year but only regained power because of the support of Green MPs [Liberals won the primary vote but it was a three way hung parliament]
      -> Almost lost in South Australia on the same day as Tasmania but clung on [Again, they came second to the Libs on the actual votes]
      -> NSW they are a complete basket case and failure, election isn't until next year but it's accepted that they will lose big time
      -> QLD is like NSW, they are failing and deeply unpopular :(
      -> I can't speak for ACT, NT or Victoria, I'm not familiar with what's going on there.

      So news isn't looking good for Labor at the moment :o

      I think the shift is mainly because the public aren't happy with their performance while they have been in government and not because of an actual shift, but I could be wrong. After all, Rudd only came into power in 2007.